Book 1, Chapter 14
Original Latin
24 At non numquam ea, quae praedicta sunt, minus eveniunt. Quae tandem id ars non habet? earum dico artium, quae coniectura continentur et sunt opinabiles. An medicina ars non putanda est? quam tamen multa fallunt. Quid? gubernatores nonne falluntur? An Achivorum exercitus et tot navium rectores non ita profecti sunt ab Ilio, ut ‘profectione laeti piscium lasciviam intuerentur’, ut ait Pacuvius, ‘nec tuendi satietas capere posset?’
Ínterea prope iam óccidente sóle inhorrescít mare,Ténebrae conduplicántur noctisque ét nimbum occaecát nigror.
Num igitur tot clarissimorum ducum regumque naufragium sustulit artem gubernandi? aut num imperatorum scientia nihil est, quia summus imperator nuper fugit amisso exercitu? aut num propterea nulla est rei publicae gerendae ratio atque prudentia, quia multa Cn. Pompeium, quaedam M. Catonem, non nulla etiam te ipsum fefellerunt? Similis est haruspicum responsio omnisque opinabilis divinatio; coniectura enim nititur, ultra quam progredi non potest.
Musean translation
Complete machine-assisted Musean translation, made directly from the Latin in separate source-only tasks and reviewed throughout against it. Both books, all 130 chapters and 282 numbered sections; no historical English translation used. Latin transcription credited to the Perseus Project under CC BY-SA 4.0, Müller’s 1915 Teubner edition.
24 “‘But sometimes predictions fail to come true.’ What art, I ask, is free of that? I mean the arts that depend on inference and deal in probabilities. Should medicine not count as an art? Yet how often it is mistaken! And do helmsmen never go wrong? Did not the Achaean army and the captains of all those ships leave Troy, as Pacuvius says, ‘rejoicing at their departure, gazing at the fishes’ play,’ so that ‘they could not tire of looking’?
“‘Meanwhile, with the sun now almost setting, the sea grows rough;Darkness doubles, and the black of night and storm clouds blinds the sky.’
“Did the shipwreck of so many illustrious leaders and kings abolish the art of navigation? Is a general’s knowledge worthless because a supreme commander recently lost his army and fled? Is there no method or wisdom in governing a state because Gnaeus Pompey was wrong in many things, Marcus Cato in some, and even you yourself in a few? The response of the haruspices, and all divination based on probability, is of the same kind: it rests on inference and cannot go beyond it.
Plain English translation
Complete machine-assisted Plain English translation, made independently and directly from the Latin, never from the Musean edition. Both books and every numbered section; a separate Latin-source model review covered the entire text. No human specialist review is claimed.
24 “But sometimes predictions fail to come true. What skill does not have that problem? I mean skills that depend on inference and judgment. Should medicine not count as a skill? Yet it makes many mistakes. What about ships' pilots? Don't they make mistakes? When the Greek army and the commanders of all those ships left Troy, weren't they, as Pacuvius says, ‘happy to be leaving, watching the playful fish,’ and ‘unable to get enough of looking’?
“‘Meanwhile, as the sun is nearly setting, the sea grows rough;Darkness doubles, and the blackness of night and storm clouds blinds them.’
“Did the shipwreck of so many famous leaders and kings do away with the skill of navigation? Or is there no such thing as military knowledge because a great commander recently lost his army and fled? Or is there no method or practical wisdom in governing a state because Gnaeus Pompey made many mistakes, Marcus Cato a few, and even you yourself some? The answers of the haruspices and all divination based on judgment are like this. They rest on inference and cannot go any further.
About this section
Book 1, Chapter 14 is part of On Divination by Marcus Tullius Cicero. This page sets the Latin original beside 2 direct-source translations, so any line can be checked against the source. It is chapter 14 of 130 in the work, which is kept in the Roman tradition.
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