Book 1, Chapter 13

21 “‘Long delayed and much held back, this imageWas at last set on its lofty pedestal in your consulship.And at one and the same hour of the appointed, destined time,Jupiter displayed his scepter from the towering column,And the ruin prepared for our country with fire and swordWas revealed by the Allobroges’ words to Senate and people.Rightly, then, the ancients whose records you preserve,Who governed peoples and cities with moderation and courage,Rightly, too, your countrymen, whose reverence and fidelityExcelled, whose wisdom far surpassed all others,Above all honored the gods in their living power.These things were searched to their depths with penetrating careBy those who gladly spent their leisure in noble studies,

22 “‘And in the shady Academy and radiant LyceumPoured forth the glorious learning of their fertile minds.From these pursuits, in the first flowering of your youth,Your country took you and set you amid great deeds of courage.Yet, easing your anxious cares with rest,You have devoted to study and to us the time your country leaves you.’

“Can you, then, bring yourself to argue against what I say about divination—you who have done what you have done and have written the verses I recited with such scrupulous care?

23 “What, Carneades? Do you ask why these things happen, or by what art they can be understood? I confess I do not know; but I say you yourself see that they happen. ‘By chance,’ you say. Really? Can anything happen by chance that bears every mark of truth? Four knucklebones may fall by chance in a Venus throw; but if you cast four hundred, do you think chance will give you a hundred Venus throws? Colors splashed at random on a panel can form the outlines of a face; but do you think a chance splashing could produce the beauty of the Venus of Cos? If a pig’s snout presses the letter A into the ground, could you therefore suppose that it might copy out Ennius’ Andromache? Carneades used to tell a story that a stone split open in the quarries of Chios disclosed the head of a little Pan. Some shape not unlike it, I suppose—but certainly not one you would say Scopas had made. For this much is certain: chance never imitates truth to perfection.

21 “‘After long delays and much postponement, this statueWas finally set on its high base when you were consul.And at one and the same hour of the fixed, appointed time,Jupiter made his scepter shine from the tall column,And the disaster planned for our country by fire and swordWas exposed to senate and people by the statements of the Allobroges.So those ancient men whose records you keep were right,Those who ruled peoples and cities with moderation and courage.Your own ancestors too were right, whose piety and loyaltyWere outstanding, whose wisdom far surpassed all others,To give special worship to the gods in their active power.These truths were seen deeply, with keen and careful thought,By men who gladly spent their leisure in honorable studies,

22 “‘And in the shady Academy and the bright LyceumPoured out great teachings from their fertile minds.As your youth first began to flower, your country took you from those menAnd put you in the midst of a great task demanding courage.Yet you ease your anxious concerns with rest,And dedicate to study and to us whatever time your country leaves free.’

“Can you then bring yourself to argue against what I say about divination? You have done what you have done, and you wrote those lines I recited with such great care!

23 “Tell me, Carneades: is your question why this happens, or what method gives us a way to foresee it? I admit I do not know. But I say that you yourself see them happen. ‘By chance,’ you say. Really? Can something that has every feature of truth come about by chance? A throw of four knucklebones can give a Venus by chance. But if you threw four hundred knucklebones, do you think you could get a hundred Venuses by chance too? Paint splashed at random on a board can make the outline of a face. But could splashing paint by accident give us something as beautiful as the Venus of Cos? If a pig presses the letter A into the earth with its snout, could you therefore suspect that it might write out Ennius' Andromache? Carneades invented an account of a rock that broke open in the Chios quarries and exposed a little Pan's head. I can believe it was a shape with some resemblance to him. But certainly not one you would say Scopas had made. The fact is that chance never produces a perfect copy of the truth.