Book 2, Chapter 6
Original Latin
15 Potestne igitur earum rerum, quae nihil habent rationis, quare futurae sint, esse ulla praesensio? Quid est enim aliud fors, quid fortuna, quid casus, quid eventus, nisi cum sic aliquid cecidit, sic evenit, ut vel aliter cadere atque evenire potuerit? Quo modo ergo id, quod temere fit caeco casu et volubilitate fortunae, praesentiri et praedici potest?
16 Medicus morbum ingravescentem ratione providet, insidias imperator, tempestates gubernator; et tamen ii ipsi saepe falluntur, qui nihil sine certa ratione opinantur; ut agricola, cum florem oleae videt, bacam quoque se visurum putat, non sine ratione ille quidem; sed non numquam tamen fallitur. Quodsi falluntur ii, qui nihil sine aliqua probabili coniectura ac ratione dicunt, quid existimandum est de coniectura eorum, qui extis aut avibus aut ostentis aut oraclis aut somniis futura praesentiunt? Nondum dico, quam haec signa nulla sint, fissum iecoris, corvi cantus, volatus aquilae, stellae traiectio, voces furentium, sortes, somnia; de quibus singulis dicam suo loco; nunc de universis.
17 Qui potest provideri quicquam futurum esse, quod neque causam habet ullam neque notam, cur futurum sit? Solis defectiones itemque lunae praedicuntur in multos annos ab iis, qui siderum motus numeris persequuntur; ea praedicunt enim, quae naturae necessitas perfectura est. Vident ex constantissimo motu lunae, quando illa e regione solis facta incurrat in umbram terrae, quae est meta noctis, ut eam obscurari necesse sit, quandoque eadem luna subiecta atque opposita soli nostris oculis eius lumen obscuret, quo in signo quaeque errantium stellarum quoque tempore futura sit, qui exortus quoque die signi alicuius aut qui occasus futurus sit. Haec qui ante dicunt, quam rationem sequantur, vides.
Musean translation
Complete machine-assisted Musean translation, made directly from the Latin in separate source-only tasks and reviewed throughout against it. Both books, all 130 chapters and 282 numbered sections; no historical English translation used. Latin transcription credited to the Perseus Project under CC BY-SA 4.0, Müller’s 1915 Teubner edition.
15 “Can there be foreknowledge, then, of events for whose occurrence there is no reason? What else do we mean by chance, fortune, accident, or contingency, except that something has happened or turned out in a way that might equally have been different? How, then, can what occurs at random, through blind accident and the shifting course of fortune, be foreseen and foretold?
16 “A doctor foresees the worsening of a disease by reasoning; a commander foresees an ambush, a helmsman storms. Yet even these men, who form no opinion without a definite reason, are often mistaken. A farmer sees the olive blossom and expects to see the fruit as well, and not without reason; yet sometimes he too is mistaken. If those who say nothing without some plausible inference and reasoning are mistaken, what are we to think of the guesses of those who foresee the future from entrails, birds, portents, oracles, or dreams? I am not yet saying how worthless these signs are—a fissure in a liver, a raven's cry, an eagle's flight, a shooting star, the utterances of the frenzied, lots, dreams. I shall discuss each in its own place; for now I am discussing them all together.
17 “How can anything be foreseen when there is neither a cause nor a sign of its future occurrence? Eclipses of the sun and moon are predicted many years ahead by those who calculate the movements of the heavenly bodies. What they predict is what nature's necessity will bring about. From the moon's unvarying movement they see when, opposite the sun, it will enter the earth's shadow—the cone of night—and must therefore be darkened; and when that same moon, passing beneath and in front of the sun, will hide its light from our eyes. They see in what constellation and at what time each wandering star will appear, and on what day a given constellation will rise or set. You can see the reasoning followed by those who predict these things.
Plain English translation
Complete machine-assisted Plain English translation, made independently and directly from the Latin, never from the Musean edition. Both books and every numbered section; a separate Latin-source model review covered the entire text. No human specialist review is claimed.
15 “Can there be any foreknowledge of things that have no reason why they will happen? What else do we mean by chance, luck, accident, or happenstance, except that something has happened in a way in which it might have happened differently? How can anyone foresee and predict what happens at random through blind accident and shifting luck?
16 “A doctor uses reasoning to foresee an illness getting worse, a general to foresee an ambush, and a pilot to foresee storms. Yet even these people, who base every judgment on solid reasoning, often make mistakes. A farmer sees an olive tree in flower and expects to see olives on it too. He has a reason for thinking so, but sometimes he is wrong. If people who never speak without some reasonable inference and argument make mistakes, what should we think of the guesses of people who foresee the future through internal organs, birds, portents, oracles, or dreams? I am not yet discussing how worthless these signs are: a split in a liver, a raven’s cry, an eagle’s flight, a shooting star, the cries of people in a frenzy, lots, and dreams. I will discuss each in its place. For now I am discussing them all together.
17 “How can anyone foresee an event when it has no cause or sign to show why it will happen? People who calculate the movements of the stars predict eclipses of the sun and moon many years ahead. They predict things that nature is bound to bring about. From the moon’s completely regular movement they see when it will face the sun and enter the earth’s shadow, the cone of night, so that it must go dark. They see when that same moon will pass below and in front of the sun and hide its light from our eyes. They see which constellation each wandering star will occupy at any given time, and on which day a constellation will rise or set. You see the reasoning used by people who predict these things.
About this section
Book 2, Chapter 6 is part of On Divination by Marcus Tullius Cicero. This page sets the Latin original beside 2 direct-source translations, so any line can be checked against the source. It is chapter 64 of 130 in the work, which is kept in the Roman tradition.
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