C — Chaîne des événemens

It has long been maintained that all events are linked one to another by an invincible fatality; it is destiny which in Homer is superior to Jupiter himself. That master of gods and men declares plainly that he cannot prevent Sarpedon his son from dying at the appointed time. Sarpedon was born in the moment in which he had to be born, and could not be born in another; he could not die anywhere but before Troy; he could not be buried anywhere but in Lycia; his body had, at the appointed time, to produce vegetables which had to change into the substance of certain Lycians; his heirs had to establish a new order in his states; this new order had to influence the neighboring kingdoms; there resulted from it a new arrangement of war and peace with the neighbors of the neighbors of Lycia: so, step by step, the destiny of the whole earth has depended on the death of Sarpedon, which depended on another event, which was bound by others to the origin of things.

If a single one of these facts had been arranged differently, there would have resulted another universe; now it was not possible that the actual universe should exist and not exist; therefore it was not possible for Jupiter to save the life of his son, Jupiter though he was.

This system of necessity and fatality was invented in our own day by Leibniz, as he says, under the name of sufficient reason; it is nevertheless very ancient; it is no new discovery that there is no effect without a cause, and that often the smallest cause produces the greatest effects.

Lord Bolingbroke admits that the little quarrels of Mrs. Marlborough and Mrs. Masham gave him the opportunity to conclude the separate treaty of Queen Anne with Louis XIV; that treaty brought the peace of Utrecht; that peace of Utrecht confirmed Philip V on the throne of Spain. Philip V took Naples and Sicily from the house of Austria; the Spanish prince who is today King of Naples evidently owes his kingdom to Lady Masham, and he would not have had it, and perhaps would not even have been born, if the duchess of Marlborough had been more complaisant toward the queen of England; his existence at Naples depended on one folly more or less at the court of London. Examine the circumstances of all the peoples of the world: they are thus established on a sequence of events that seem connected to nothing and are connected to everything. Everything in this immense machine is a cog, pulley, rope, or spring.

It is the same in the physical world. A wind that blows from the depths of Africa and the southern seas brings a part of the African atmosphere, which falls again as rain in the valleys of the Alps; those rains fertilize our lands; our north wind in its turn sends our vapors to the Negroes; we do good to Guinea, and Guinea does good to us in its turn. The chain extends from one end of the universe to the other.

But it seems to me that the truth of this principle is strangely abused. It is concluded from it that there is no atom so small whose movement has not influenced the present arrangement of the whole world; that there is no accident so small, either among men or among animals, that is not an essential link in the great chain of destiny.

Let us understand one another: every effect evidently has its cause, going back from cause to cause into the abyss of eternity; but not every cause has its effect, coming down to the end of the ages. All events are produced one by another, I admit it; if the past has given birth to the present, the present gives birth to the future; everything has fathers, but not everything always has children. It is here precisely as with a genealogical tree; every house goes back, as is known, to Adam, but in the family there are many people who died without leaving posterity.

There is a genealogical tree of the events of this world. It is incontestable that the inhabitants of Gaul and Spain descend from Gomer, and the Russians from Magog his younger brother: this genealogy is found in so many big books! On that basis, one cannot deny that we owe to Magog the sixty thousand Russians who are today in arms toward Pomerania, and the sixty thousand French who are toward Frankfurt; but whether Magog spat to the right or to the left near Mount Caucasus, and whether he made two ripples in a well or three, whether he slept on his left side or on his right, I do not see that this has much influenced the resolution taken by the Empress of Russia Elizabeth to send an army to the aid of the Empress of the Romans Maria Theresa. Whether my dog dreams or does not dream in his sleep, I do not perceive the relation this important affair can have with those of the Great Mogul.

We must remember that nature is not entirely filled with matter, and that not every movement is communicated step by step until it goes around the world. Throw into the water a body of like density: you calculate easily that after some time the movement of that body, and that which it communicated to the water, are annihilated; movement is lost and is restored; therefore the movement that Magog may have produced by spitting into a well cannot have influenced what is happening today in Russia and in Prussia. Therefore present events are not the children of all past events; they have their direct lines, but a thousand little collateral lines are of no use to them. Once again, every being has its father, but not every being has children: we shall perhaps say more of this when we speak of destiny.

People have long claimed that an inescapable fate links all events together. In Homer, destiny stands above even Jupiter. This master of gods and men says it plainly. He can’t stop his son Sarpedon from dying at the appointed time. Sarpedon was born at the moment he had to be born. He couldn’t have been born at any other moment. He could die nowhere but outside Troy, and be buried nowhere but in Lycia. At the appointed time, vegetables had to grow from his body. These had to become part of some Lycians’ bodies. His heirs had to set up a new order in his lands. That new order had to affect the neighboring kingdoms. That meant new arrangements for war and peace with the neighbors of Lycia’s neighbors. So, step by step, the fate of the whole earth depended on Sarpedon’s death. His death depended on another event. Other events linked that one to the origin of things.

Change just one of these facts, and you’d have had a different universe. But the present universe couldn’t both exist and not exist. So Jupiter couldn’t save his son’s life, even though he was Jupiter.

Leibniz says he invented this system of necessity and fate in our own time. He called it sufficient reason. Yet it’s very old. An effect has to have a cause: that’s no new discovery. Nor is it news that the smallest cause often produces the biggest effects.

Lord Bolingbroke admits that little quarrels between Lady Marlborough and Lady Masham gave him an opening. He could make Queen Anne’s separate treaty with Louis XIV. That treaty led to the Peace of Utrecht. The Peace of Utrecht secured Philip V on the Spanish throne. Philip V took Naples and Sicily from the House of Austria. The Spanish prince who’s now king of Naples clearly owes his kingdom to Lady Masham. Suppose the Duchess of Marlborough had been more willing to please the queen of England. He wouldn’t have had that kingdom. Perhaps he wouldn’t even have been born. His existence in Naples depended on a little more or less foolishness at the London court. Look at the situations of all the world’s peoples. They’re built on a series of facts in just this way. These facts seem connected to nothing, but they’re connected to everything. In this huge machine, everything is a gear, a pulley, a rope, a spring.

The same goes for the physical world. Wind blows from deep in Africa and from the southern seas. It brings some of the African air, which falls as rain in the Alpine valleys. These rains make our land fertile. Our north wind in turn sends our vapors to the Negroes. We do Guinea good, and Guinea does us good in return. The chain stretches from one end of the universe to the other.

But I think people badly misuse this true principle. They draw this conclusion: even the smallest atom’s movement has affected the whole world’s present arrangement. Every tiny accident among people or animals is an essential link in the great chain of fate.

Let’s be clear. Every effect plainly has a cause. You can trace cause after cause back into the bottomless depths of eternity. But not every cause has effects reaching forward to the end of time. I admit that events produce one another. The past gave birth to the present, and the present gives birth to the future. Everything has fathers, but not everything always has children. It’s just like a family tree. As everyone knows, every family goes back to Adam. But many people in the family died without leaving descendants.

Events in this world have a family tree. The people of Gaul and Spain descend from Gomer. The Russians descend from his younger brother Magog. That’s beyond dispute. You find this family tree in so many big books! On that basis, we can’t deny what we owe Magog. Sixty thousand Russians are now under arms toward Pomerania. Sixty thousand French are near Frankfurt. We owe him both. But did Magog spit right or left near Mount Caucasus? Did he make two ripples in a well or three? Did he sleep on his left side or his right? I can’t see that it much affected the Russian empress Elizabeth’s decision. She decided to send an army to help Maria Theresa, empress of the Romans. My dog may or may not dream in his sleep. I can’t see how this important business connects with the Great Mogul’s affairs.

We have to remember that nature isn’t completely filled with matter. Not every movement spreads from place to place until it circles the world. Drop something into water of the same density. You can easily calculate what happens after a while. Both its movement and the movement it passed to the water are wiped out. Movement is lost and renewed. So Magog’s spitting into a well couldn’t have affected events in Russia and Prussia today. Present events aren’t the children of all past events, then. They have their direct lines of descent. A thousand little side branches contribute nothing to them. Again, every being has a father, but not every being has children. Perhaps we’ll say more when we discuss destiny.