Book 2, Chapter 21

47 “of each occurrence! At that point you also recited my Prognostics and mentioned kinds of plants, scammony and aristolochia root, whose causes you did not know but whose power and effect you could see. The cases are wholly different. Both Boethus the Stoic, whom you named, and our friend Posidonius have investigated the causes of weather signs; and even if the causes of those phenomena were not discovered, the phenomena themselves could still have been observed and noted. But what long-standing observation concerns Natta's statue or the bronze tablets of the laws being struck from heaven? The Pinarii Nattae are nobles; therefore danger threatens from the nobility. How cunningly Jupiter thought that out! The infant Romulus was struck by lightning; therefore danger is indicated for the city he founded. How skillfully Jupiter informs us through signs! ‘But Jupiter's statue was being set up at the very time the conspiracy was being disclosed.’ Naturally, you prefer to think this happened through the will of the gods rather than by chance. And the contractor who took the contract for that column from Cotta and Torquatus was delayed not by laziness or lack of funds, but was held back until that very hour by the immortal gods.

48 “I do not entirely abandon the possibility that these things are true; but I do not know, and I wish to learn from you. When I suggested that some events seemed to turn out by chance as diviners had foretold, you said much about chance: a Venus throw could occur by chance in a cast of four knucklebones, but a hundred Venus throws could not occur by chance with four hundred knucklebones. First, I do not see why not; but I will not dispute it, since you have analogies in abundance. You have your splashing of pigments, your pig's snout, and a great many others. You also say Carneades invented the story of the little Pan's head, as though it could not have occurred by chance, and as though every block of marble did not necessarily contain even heads worthy of Praxiteles! Those very heads are made by removing material; Praxiteles brings nothing into the stone. But when much has been removed and the features of the face have been reached, you recognize that what now stands polished was inside all along.

47 “of each event! On that point you recited my Weather Signs and mentioned kinds of plants, scammony and birthwort root. You said you did not know their causes but could see their power and effect. The cases are completely different. The weather signs have had their causes studied by the Stoic Boethus—you mentioned him—and also by our friend Posidonius. Even without discovering their causes, people could have watched and recorded those events. Where is the ancient record of observations to explain lightning hitting Natta’s statue or the bronze tablets carrying the laws? ‘The Pinarii Nattae are nobles. So danger comes from the nobility.’ How cleverly Jupiter thought that out! ‘The infant Romulus was struck by lightning. So danger threatens the city he founded.’ How expertly Jupiter uses signs to inform us! ‘But Jupiter’s statue was being set up at the same moment the conspiracy was being reported.’ And you would rather think, of course, that the gods’ will did this, rather than chance. The contractor who had contracted with Cotta and Torquatus to make that column was not delayed by laziness or lack of money. The immortal gods kept him waiting for that very hour.

48 “I do not entirely rule out the truth of these claims. But I do not know, and I want to learn from you. When I thought some things happened by chance just as diviners had predicted, you said a great deal about chance. You said that a Venus throw could occur by chance when four knucklebones were thrown, but that with four hundred knucklebones, chance could not produce a hundred Venus throws. To begin with, why should that be impossible? I cannot see, but I will not argue. You have plenty of comparisons: splashes of paint, a pig’s snout, and very many others. You also say Carneades made up his story about the little Pan’s head. As if that could not have happened by chance, and as if even heads worthy of Praxiteles must not exist inside every block of marble! Those heads themselves are made by taking material away. Praxiteles adds nothing to the block. But when a great deal has been removed and the lines of a face have been reached, you realize that the finished piece was inside all along.